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Wednesday, June 8, 2011

Opposition and economy--Ikram Sehgal-Pakistan Budget 2011

Pakistans leading analyst Mr Ikram Sehgal brilliantly analyses the 2011 Budget






Ikram SehgalThursday, June 09, 2011
The writer is a defence and political analyst.

Email: isehgal@pathfinder9.com

Is there a single good reason why Pakistanis should be deprived of their legitimate right to hear (and witness) what is in store for them, financially, in the coming year? The National Assembly floor is “hallowed ground” for all those who advocate the cause of democracy. While the opposition has every right to protest within the bounds of acceptable parliamentary practice (and language), the spectacle that was witnessed this year was simply abhorrent. These proponents of democracy should know that converting the National Assembly floor into a fish market will only consign democracy down the proverbial drain.

Sadly, the PML-N has a sorry history of such ‘democratic’ conduct. The Supreme Court was attacked by supporters of the PML-N on November 27, 1998. Its “parliamentarians’’ also resorted to unbecoming conduct on June 3, 2011.

In order to run the affairs of the state, taxes have to be levied and the funds thus collected allocated for public spending. Democracy is best served with the opposition dissecting budget proposals line by line, and suggesting better alternatives.

Ravaged by the worst floods in the country’s history and the ever-expanding backlash from the “war against terrorism,” our economic miseries were further aggravated by a meteoric rise in oil prices. The vulnerability and structural weaknesses of the economy were exposed when confronted with challenges.

The floods badly damaged the core areas of the agricultural sector, which in turn disrupted activities in the manufacturing and services sectors. No surprise that we have missed all our economic targets, achieving a GDP growth rate of only 2.4 percent against the projected 4.5 percent — the lowest in the region.

Despite spending huge amounts on population control, we have the highest population growth in the region, registering only a decline of one percent over 30 years.

What the finance minister left unsaid was the required harmony with IMF diktats. The PPP’s coalition partner in the federal cabinet forced him to omit a good portion of his budget speech; the PML-Q and the MQM dare not risk public anger already aroused by the selling of their political souls for a few ineffectual federal ministries.

One cannot underestimate the enormous damage caused to the social fabric on account of our “war against terrorism”. Suffering almost US$68 billion in losses this financial year (2010-2011), Pakistan has already lost US$17.83 billion equalling this year’s tax target. The survey showing only 5.6 percent of the 54.92 million employable unemployed in 2009-10 cannot be correct in actual terms – 29.1 percent of the so-called employed are unpaid domestic helpers, more than 23 percent being women.

The long-standing demand for taxing agricultural income was agreed to by the provinces during the historic National Finance Commission (NFC) Accord brokered by then finance minister Shaukat Tarin. Not invited to the formal signing ceremony after having achieved the impossible, this was Tarin’s parting gift to the nation; he resigned soon after. Legislators being big landowners, the provinces had no intention of making good on their promise. Why pay taxes when they can easily legislate dumping the burden on the one percent or so of the population that does pay taxes. The only solution is to broaden the tax base and perfect the means of collection.

A meeting called by the finance minister only 10 days before the budget, was alas too late. Had it been held six months earlier, the provinces could have been committed to the agreed formula, considerably lessening the financial burden on the centre. That patwaris can collect such taxes is not only a farce, it is pure fantasy.

The Punjab Provincial Civil Services (PCS) Officers led by Rai Mansoor had given pragmatic suggestions to their provincial government for increasing revenue and decreasing expenditure. In return, they were jailed and suspended by the PML-N government. This is selective democracy the Sharifs’ way.

The public understandably wants to know whether the huge amount allocated for defence services is necessary and if so, is it being spent judiciously? Every penny of the taxpayers’ money must be accounted for and the mechanics of accountability must be worked out. Emotions must not get the better of reason while the constant public refrain about making the Armed Forces accountable for their expenditures should also not become an excuse for publically chastising them.

This deliberate humiliation of the men in uniform is unacceptable. While Mian Nawaz Sharif may have a genuine grouse against Musharraf, why is he taking it out on the army at large? The defence services must practice modern accounting methods. Waste is inherent in the present process. One agrees that complete revamping of the entire military financial system is required to get more bang for the buck.

The military must punish the corrupt in its midst and not cover up their crimes, for example, those who were involved in the NLC scam where an impartial enquiry found them losing billions in public money while lining their own pockets. Some defence expenditures must necessarily remain under wraps and motivated use of the media to make our defence services appear controversial must be avoided. With defence forces four to five times our size, India is not willing to resolve the Siachen problem. Indian appeasers will please note, India’s defence budget is more than our entire federal budget. Can we afford to let our guard down and besmirch the uniform?

One would rather be finance minister in Pakistan under a military government than in a democratic set-up. In an authoritarian regime the man holding the purse strings has enormous power – his military bosses are not really qualified to question him, financial spreadsheets being beyond their capacity. By weaving statistics at will, any good accountant, let alone economist, can keep them spellbound.

The present PPP government is hardly to blame for the economic sins of the Musharraf regime. Successfully practicing his own particular brand of “feel good” economics to make his boss Musharraf popular, Shaukat Aziz failed to invest in the power sector (and socio-economic infrastructure). The downside of his consumer-oriented policy finally caught up with the country with a vengeance. In the democratic dispensation, unless the finance minister concedes to their many demands for favours, hell hath no fury like a jilted parliamentarian.

Why in the world Dr Abdul Hafeez Shaikh, an extremely honest and competent technocrat, would want to be the country’s finance minister now, at the worst of times, is beyond me. One of Musharraf’s major mistakes was not making either him or Shaukat Tarin finance minister. Shaukat Aziz, master of public relations, would have made a very good foreign minister; he could charm a snake out of its skin.

Knowing full well that he would be pummeled by friend and foe alike, Hafeez Shaikh has courageously chosen to accept the poisoned chalice, in the greater national interest. Incidentally, did he pay the PML-N to throw a political tantrum to spare him political blushes on his debut?

In the circumstances, kudos to Hafeez Shaikh. He didn’t do too bad a job.



In 1971, Ikram Sehgal was taken prisoner of war in East Pakistan and successfully escaped from Indian Authorities. Joined 44 Punjab, he was given a battlefield promotion to Major, left the Army in 1974. He worked as a commercial pilot before starting his own business in 1977. A regular columnist in the print media since 1987, he graduated to his own TV Talk Show. He is a member of World Economic Forum (WEF), International Organization for Migration (IOM) & the Chairman of Pathfinder G4S Pakistan. Educated at Lawrence College, Murari Chand College, Notre Dame College & the Pakistan Military Academy. Commissioned in 1965.


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